长租公寓站上风口:上规模 赌明天
2018/05/02

从默默无闻到备受追捧,长租公寓行业在2017年变成了“风口上的猪”。

在旭辉领寓国际副总裁高杰的记忆中,一年前的景象还大不相同。旭辉集团于2016年开始进入长租公寓领域,彼时这家公司对领寓团队的要求是尽量能够自我造血,“我们一年前去跟很多银行谈(融资),根本就约不到人。结果2017年下半年,风口突转,各种银行都来找我们。”

银行态度的转变,意味着融资渠道的打开。2017年12月底,旭辉发行了国内首单民企长租公寓储架式权益类REITs,注册规模30亿元。从计划发行到最终成功,这单储架式权益类REITs只花费了短短43天——对于长租公寓企业来说,这一融资速度在一年前是不可想象的。

对于前期投入大、运营周期长的长租公寓行业来说,在政策支持下,现阶段融资渠道的打通解决了前期融资的难题。除了旭辉,截至目前,已经有魔方公寓、新派公寓、保利地产、招商蛇口、碧桂园等企业发行了包括ABS、CMBS、类REITS等在内的长租公寓金融产品。

另外一方面,房企和国家队在2017年的纷纷入局,让这一行业多元化供给主体的局面正在形成。和公寓运营商、房企主要在市场上获取存量房源不同,国家队的优势在于可以直接获取租赁住宅土地。根据克而瑞研究中心的统计,目前上海地产集团是“国家队”中获取租赁用地规模最大的一家,其新增租赁住宅土储约为71万平方米。

多供给主体带来的,是更为激烈的竞争局势。几乎所有长租公寓从业者都坚信,在现阶段,做大规模是他们必然的选择。一些2017年才开始布局的房企,目前拓展房源数不超过10000间,但喊出了几年内拓展超过百万房源的口号。

在万亿的市场空间面前,机遇与挑战始终并存。中富旅居董事长袁野表示,地产商做公寓,任重而道远,“因为回报率低,回报周期长。另外,融资成本也高,ABS、类REITS产品未来走向并不明朗。”

“如果说2017年是长租公寓元年的话,2018、2019年肯定是整合年,有一些可能就做不下去了,有一些可能面临跟其他人合作。”克而瑞副总裁张兆娟分析说。

长租风起

长租公寓行业火热的一大表现,就是多元化供应主体的出现。

目前,布局长租公寓的企业普遍分为以下几类:品牌运营商,一般起步较早,有些运营商已深耕超过十年,代表性企业包括YOU+公寓、魔方公寓等;中介系,比如世联红璞公寓、链家自如、我爱我家相寓;酒店系,包括雅诗阁、如家逗号公寓、华住城家公寓;房企系,包括万科泊寓、龙湖冠寓、旭辉领寓、金地草莓社区等等;国家队,比如上海地产集团、上海陆家嘴集团、上海城投、深圳人才安居集团等。“这个厮杀刚开始,但相对来讲其实这一块的市场压力会大一些。”张兆娟透露,根据克而瑞的数据统计,目前市场上的长租品牌运营商数量最多,约有1000家,中介系约10家,酒店系约20家,房企约30家。

之所以能吸引到这么多入局者,政策的红利是最关键的因素之一。

2017年7月21日,住房和城乡建设部会同国家发改委、公安部、财政部、国土资源部等八部门联合印发《关于在人口净流入的大中城市加快发展住房租赁市场的通知》,提出将采取多种措施加快推进租赁住房建设,培育和发展住房租赁市场,并且选取了12个城市作为首批开展住房租赁试点单位。十九大召开之后,又提出“房住不炒”的概念,加快建立租购并举的住房制度,进一步利好租赁住宅市场。

一线城市是最早从政府层面直接推动发展租赁住宅市场的。根据相关城市公布数据统计,一线城市未来3-5年将供应超过175万套租赁住宅,其中上海最高,未来170万套的住宅供应中,有70万套规划为租赁住宅,占比超过40%。

在如此高规格的政策红利出现后,金融机构开始响应。截至目前,已经有建设银行、工商银行、中信银行、中国银行等多家金融机构介入长租公寓领域。

张兆娟认为,在需求端,全国租赁人口的持续增长,也是推动长租公寓市场站上风口的重要原因之一。她表示,一般租房人口大约占到流动人口的60%,据此推算,到2020年,中国租赁人口预计达2.2亿人,2030年这一数字会上升至2.65亿,“核心人口还是在北上广深四个一线城市以及二线核心城市,而且北上广深里面哪个城市所谓的流动人口和常住人口的比例越倒挂,那个城市的租赁是最有机会的。”

但是,即便竞争已经如此激烈,从现状看,中国的长租公寓市场依然处于初级发展阶段。“上海已经算是全国租赁市场当中相对最为成熟的,整个租赁市场占比也不过40%左右。跟成熟国家、成熟市场相比,有的最高基本达到60%。一方面说明我们这个市场还有长足的上升空间,另外一方面说明我们的市场刚刚开始进入一个爆发期。”易居企业集团执行总裁张燕分析说。

另一方面,虽然有众多企业抢滩布局,但和个人房东相比,目前企业掌握的房源依然是杯水车薪。张燕透露,目前多元化供应主体加起来拥有的房源不到2.5%,市场当中高达97.5%的房源还是在个人房东手中,如何激活这一部分房源,可能是接下来长租公寓市场当中的一个重要课题。

张燕还指出,长租公寓市场现阶段还面临一大挑战:错配。“第一是供应区域的错配,我们都希望今天的租赁住房是在市区交通便利且租金价格相对合理的地段,但是新增的租赁土地大多数都是在郊环外、外环外;第二是价格的错配,经过调研,在3000元以下的月租金,或者是3000到6000元的月租金,是租赁群体最能够承受的价格段,但这两个价格段均供不应求,而6000元以上租金的房源反而是供大于求。”张燕说。

进击的国家队

长租公寓行业的政策红利出现后,国家队于2017年下半年开始入场。

作为国家队布局长租公寓市场的典型代表城市,上海市政府在全国最早推动发展住宅租赁市场。短短半年时间内,上海已经成功出让29幅租赁住房用地,均由国企拿下,包括上海地产集团、上海张江集团、光明食品集团、上海城投等国企。

目前,非国企还无法享受到租赁地块的红利。一家国资背景的大型房企曾经主动找到过上海市相关部门,提出也想参与其中的申请,但被以“不是纯国企”的理由拒绝。

在国家队中,上海地产集团获取的租赁地块规模最大。在29幅租赁用地中,上海地产集团拿下10幅,加上7幅自有用地,确定了首批17幅租赁房地块,计划投资约180亿元,全部建成后可供应约2万套租赁住房。入市后,将采取无门槛、平租金的方式向社会供应。2018年1月底,上海地产集团还发布了首个国企租赁住房业务品牌——城方。

在长租公寓市场,国家队具备天然的政策优势。上海地产集团战略投资部副总经理金国雄对此并不避讳,他透露,按照正常途径获取上述10块地的难度非常大,此外,政府还“赠送”了10%的配套面积,不计容、免地价,这意味着,上述10幅地块共计71万平方米建筑面积,还要另加上7万平方米的配套面积。

“拿到地以后,金融政策方面(的支持)也是比较突出,像国家开发银行给我们几百亿的授信,建行、浦发行动比较积极,原来开发贷只有几年的时间,他们敢于创新,做了大概25年的开发贷,对我们是一个极大的支持。”金国雄说。

据悉,上海地产集团今年计划推出长租公寓12000套,上半年计划开工4000套,下半年开工8000套,年底前全面开工,预计2020年实现交付。对于未来,上海地产集团还提出了宏大的规模目标。据金国雄透露,上海地产集团会成立一家关于租赁住宅的混合所有制企业,以轻资产化模式上市,5年时间做到8万套并实现 IPO,8年实现估值2000亿元目标。

但是,对于国企来说,运营是短板。这些快速获取资源的国家队如何运营出真正符合市场需求的产品,还有待时间的检验。

而对于民营企业来说,和国家队合作或许会成为下一步的趋势。经济观察报了解到,公寓品牌运营商湾流国际青年社区即将在今年3月份迎来和一家国企的股权合作。

盈利之难和资产升值

由于前期获取房源成本高、租金上涨压力大,长租公寓行业目前面临的整体现状是实现行业盈利举步维艰。

克而瑞调研了行业多家长租公寓企业,发现目前行业平均利润水平仅仅在2%-4%,现金流回正周期至少需要6年以上。更令人担忧的是,上述微薄的盈利水平还需要建立在一个基础上——企业整体出租率保持在95%以上,但目前行业10强的平均出租率也才约90%。

张兆娟还表示,长租公寓的续租率更低,整体不超过30%。

底价拿到租赁用地的国企在盈利方面也并不轻松。金国雄坦承,运营压力确实很大,“我们的理解是,首先要获取一些资源,10块地的地段都不错,从运营的角度是保本,收益大概能做到接近银行的贷款利率,更注重资产长期增值。”

在这一点上,无论是民营企业还是国家队的想法均一致。他们之所以在盈利难的现状面前依然不断做大规模,“赌”的就是未来的资产升值以及轻资产化。“就看谁家的资产更优质,谁家运营得更好,其实未来在金融上获取到的支持可能会更多。”张兆娟说。

“真正的核心是聚焦在运营管理,它最终能展现这个资产价值,不然你的资产拿来再便宜,运营不好,你买来一个资产100亿,被你运营变成80亿了。”上海万科泊寓总经理严勇表示。作为最早布局长租公寓的龙头房企,万科泊寓在运营方面已经形成了一套相对完善的管理体系。

据严勇透露,万科原本的热带雨林体系使业务之间产生协同效应,提升客户黏性,比如泊寓和住宅体系的协同,通过租房抵房款;泊寓和商业体系的协同,泊寓租户在万科商业综合体里享受规定的权益等。当客户黏性增加后,客户之间也会产生协同效应。

目前,万科泊寓运营管理体系可细分为三个板块与九个模块,三个板块分别是基础运营、增值运营和保障运营,九个模块则包括:招租,基础改装服务,运营管理,社群活力建设,资源体系,智能化安保,快速维修,平行系统,人才资源。“就万科泊寓的经验,影响利润的因素包括获取的成本、建安成本的管控,第三个是坪效:租金、单房面积&CE值,CE值是我们内部管控租赁住房成本运营管控的指标。其实在坪效这一块,通过整个运营管理体系来提高租金,第二是单房面积,我们上海公司有一个研究所专门在做这个事。原来我们对销售性住房从中低端到高端到别墅都有一套理论的,但是在租赁住房里面又是另外一个概念了。要考虑客户的需求、两房面积是多少、三房是多少、地板和墙面用什么材料,来减少更换频率。还有一个核心因素是周转,开发改造周期,到成熟的周期,到持续运营的增值。通过对管理的赋能,让资产产生增值效益。”严勇进一步表示。

(文章整理于经济观察报)


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